Trade sustainability impact assessment (SIA) on the comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada: Final report

Commissioned by the European Commission, the Final Report for the EU-Canada Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) on the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of trade liberalisation under CETA. The analysis assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts in Canada and the European Union in three main sectors, sixteen sub-sectors and across seven cross-cutting issues. It predicts a number of macro-economic and sector-specific impacts. The macro analysis suggests the EU may see increases in real GDP of 0.02-0.03% in the long-term from CETA, whereas Canada may see increases of 0.18-0.36%. The Investment section of the report suggests these numbers could be higher when factoring in investment increases. At the sectoral level, the study predicts the greatest gains in output and trade to be stimulated by services liberalisation and by the removal of tariffs applied on sensitive agricultural products. It also suggests CETA could have a positive social impact if it includes provisions on the ILO’s Core Labour Standards and Decent Work Agenda. The study also details a variety of impacts in various “cross-cutting” components of CETA. It finds CETA would stimulate investment in Canada, and to a lesser extent in the EU; and finds costs outweigh the benefits of including controversial NAFTA-style investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions in CETA. It predicts potentially imbalanced benefits from a government procurement (GP) chapter. The study assumes CETA will lead to an upward harmonisation in intellectual property rights (IPR) regulations, particularly in Canada, which will have a number of effects. It predicts some notable impacts in terms of competition policy, as well as trade facilitation, free circulation of goods and labour mobility.EU-Canada Sustainability Impact Assessment; SIA; EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement; Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement; CETA; government procurement; investor-state provisions; ISDS; competition policy; Dan Prud'homme; trade impact assessment

Improving Negative Sampling for Word Representation using Self-embedded Features

Although the word-popularity based negative sampler has shown superb performance in the skip-gram model, the theoretical motivation behind oversampling popular (non-observed) words as negative samples is still not well understood. In this paper, we start from an investigation of the gradient vanishing issue in the skipgram model without a proper negative sampler. By performing an insightful analysis from the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) learning perspective, we demonstrate that, both theoretically and intuitively, negative samples with larger inner product scores are more informative than those with lower scores for the SGD learner in terms of both convergence rate and accuracy. Understanding this, we propose an alternative sampling algorithm that dynamically selects informative negative samples during each SGD update. More importantly, the proposed sampler accounts for multi-dimensional self-embedded features during the sampling process, which essentially makes it more effective than the original popularity-based (one-dimensional) sampler. Empirical experiments further verify our observations, and show that our fine-grained samplers gain significant improvement over the existing ones without increasing computational complexity.Comment: Accepted in WSDM 201

Relevance-based Word Embedding

Learning a high-dimensional dense representation for vocabulary terms, also known as a word embedding, has recently attracted much attention in natural language processing and information retrieval tasks. The embedding vectors are typically learned based on term proximity in a large corpus. This means that the objective in well-known word embedding algorithms, e.g., word2vec, is to accurately predict adjacent word(s) for a given word or context. However, this objective is not necessarily equivalent to the goal of many information retrieval (IR) tasks. The primary objective in various IR tasks is to capture relevance instead of term proximity, syntactic, or even semantic similarity. This is the motivation for developing unsupervised relevance-based word embedding models that learn word representations based on query-document relevance information. In this paper, we propose two learning models with different objective functions; one learns a relevance distribution over the vocabulary set for each query, and the other classifies each term as belonging to the relevant or non-relevant class for each query. To train our models, we used over six million unique queries and the top ranked documents retrieved in response to each query, which are assumed to be relevant to the query. We extrinsically evaluate our learned word representation models using two IR tasks: query expansion and query classification. Both query expansion experiments on four TREC collections and query classification experiments on the KDD Cup 2005 dataset suggest that the relevance-based word embedding models significantly outperform state-of-the-art proximity-based embedding models, such as word2vec and GloVe.Comment: to appear in the proceedings of The 40th International ACM SIGIR Conference on Research and Development in Information Retrieval (SIGIR '17

Jointly Learning Word Embeddings and Latent Topics

Word embedding models such as Skip-gram learn a vector-space representation for each word, based on the local word collocation patterns that are observed in a text corpus. Latent topic models, on the other hand, take a more global view, looking at the word distributions across the corpus to assign a topic to each word occurrence. These two paradigms are complementary in how they represent the meaning of word occurrences. While some previous works have already looked at using word embeddings for improving the quality of latent topics, and conversely, at using latent topics for improving word embeddings, such "two-step'' methods cannot capture the mutual interaction between the two paradigms. In this paper, we propose STE, a framework which can learn word embeddings and latent topics in a unified manner. STE naturally obtains topic-specific word embeddings, and thus addresses the issue of polysemy. At the same time, it also learns the term distributions of the topics, and the topic distributions of the documents. Our experimental results demonstrate that the STE model can indeed generate useful topic-specific word embeddings and coherent latent topics in an effective and efficient way

Trade sustainability impact assessment (SIA) on the comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada: Final report

Commissioned by the European Commission, the Final Report for the EU-Canada Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) on the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of trade liberalisation under CETA. The analysis assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts in Canada and the European Union in three main sectors, sixteen sub-sectors and across seven cross-cutting issues. It predicts a number of macro-economic and sector-specific impacts. The macro analysis suggests the EU may see increases in real GDP of 0.02-0.03% in the long-term from CETA, whereas Canada may see increases of 0.18-0.36%. The Investment section of the report suggests these numbers could be higher when factoring in investment increases. At the sectoral level, the study predicts the greatest gains in output and trade to be stimulated by services liberalisation and by the removal of tariffs applied on sensitive agricultural products. It also suggests CETA could have a positive social impact if it includes provisions on the ILO’s Core Labour Standards and Decent Work Agenda. The study also details a variety of impacts in various “cross-cutting” components of CETA. It finds CETA would stimulate investment in Canada, and to a lesser extent in the EU; and finds costs outweigh the benefits of including controversial NAFTA-style investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions in CETA. It predicts potentially imbalanced benefits from a government procurement (GP) chapter. The study assumes CETA will lead to an upward harmonisation in intellectual property rights (IPR) regulations, particularly in Canada, which will have a number of effects. It predicts some notable impacts in terms of competition policy, as well as trade facilitation, free circulation of goods and labour mobility

The ANTENATAL multicentre study to predict postnatal renal outcome in fetuses with posterior urethral valves: objectives and design

Abstract Background Posterior urethral valves (PUV) account for 17% of paediatric end-stage renal disease. A major issue in the management of PUV is prenatal prediction of postnatal renal function. Fetal ultrasound and fetal urine biochemistry are currently employed for this prediction, but clearly lack precision. We previously developed a fetal urine peptide signature that predicted in utero with high precision postnatal renal function in fetuses with PUV. We describe here the objectives and design of the prospective international multicentre ANTENATAL (multicentre validation of a fetal urine peptidome-based classifier to predict postnatal renal function in posterior urethral valves) study, set up to validate this fetal urine peptide signature. Methods Participants will be PUV pregnancies enrolled from 2017 to 2021 and followed up until 2023 in >30 European centres endorsed and supported by European reference networks for rare urological disorders (ERN eUROGEN) and rare kidney diseases (ERN ERKNet). The endpoint will be renal/patient survival at 2 years postnatally. Assuming α = 0.05, 1–β = 0.8 and a mean prevalence of severe renal outcome in PUV individuals of 0.35, 400 patients need to be enrolled to validate the previously reported sensitivity and specificity of the peptide signature. Results In this largest multicentre study of antenatally detected PUV, we anticipate bringing a novel tool to the clinic. Based on urinary peptides and potentially amended in the future with additional omics traits, this tool will be able to precisely quantify postnatal renal survival in PUV pregnancies. The main limitation of the employed approach is the need for specialized equipment. Conclusions Accurate risk assessment in the prenatal period should strongly improve the management of fetuses with PUV

Efficacy and Safety of Ixekizumab in the Treatment of Radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis:Sixteen-Week Results From a Phase III Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial in Patients With Prior Inadequate Response to or Intolerance of Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors

Objective: To investigate the efficacy and safety of ixekizumab in patients with active radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) and prior inadequate response to or intolerance of 1 or 2 tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi). Methods: In this phase III randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, adult patients with an inadequate response to or intolerance of 1 or 2 TNFi and an established diagnosis of axial SpA (according to the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society [ASAS] criteria for radiographic axial SpA, with radiographic sacroiliitis defined according to the modified New York criteria and ≥1 feature of SpA) were recruited and randomized 1:1:1 to receive placebo or 80-mg subcutaneous ixekizumab every 2 weeks (IXEQ2W) or 4 weeks (IXEQ4W), with an 80-mg or 160-mg starting dose. The primary end point was 40% improvement in disease activity according to the ASAS criteria (ASAS40) at week 16. Secondary outcomes and safety were also assessed. Results: A total of 316 patients were randomized to receive placebo (n = 104), IXEQ2W (n = 98), or IXEQ4W (n = 114). At week 16, significantly higher proportions of IXEQ2W patients (n = 30 [30.6%]; P = 0.003) or IXEQ4W patients (n = 29 [25.4%]; P = 0.017) had achieved an ASAS40 response versus the placebo group (n = 13 [12.5%]), with statistically significant differences reported as early as week 1 with ixekizumab treatment. Statistically significant improvements in disease activity, function, quality of life, and spinal magnetic resonance imaging–evident inflammation were observed after 16 weeks of ixekizumab treatment versus placebo. Treatment-emergent adverse events (AEs) with ixekizumab treatment were more frequent than with placebo. Serious AEs were similar across treatment arms. One death was reported (IXEQ2W group). Conclusion: Ixekizumab treatment for 16 weeks in patients with active radiographic axial SpA and previous inadequate response to or intolerance of 1 or 2 TNFi yields rapid and significant improvements in the signs and symptoms of radiographic axial SpA versus placebo

Molecular Ecology and Natural History of Simian Foamy Virus Infection in Wild-Living Chimpanzees

Identifying microbial pathogens with zoonotic potential in wild-living primates can be important to human health, as evidenced by human immunodeficiency viruses types 1 and 2 (HIV-1 and HIV-2) and Ebola virus. Simian foamy viruses (SFVs) are ancient retroviruses that infect Old and New World monkeys and apes. Although not known to cause disease, these viruses are of public health interest because they have the potential to infect humans and thus provide a more general indication of zoonotic exposure risks. Surprisingly, no information exists concerning the prevalence, geographic distribution, and genetic diversity of SFVs in wild-living monkeys and apes. Here, we report the first comprehensive survey of SFVcpz infection in free-ranging chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) using newly developed, fecal-based assays. Chimpanzee fecal samples (n = 724) were collected at 25 field sites throughout equatorial Africa and tested for SFVcpz-specific antibodies (n = 706) or viral nucleic acids (n = 392). SFVcpz infection was documented at all field sites, with prevalence rates ranging from 44% to 100%. In two habituated communities, adult chimpanzees had significantly higher SFVcpz infection rates than infants and juveniles, indicating predominantly horizontal rather than vertical transmission routes. Some chimpanzees were co-infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIVcpz); however, there was no evidence that SFVcpz and SIVcpz were epidemiologically linked. SFVcpz nucleic acids were recovered from 177 fecal samples, all of which contained SFVcpz RNA and not DNA. Phylogenetic analysis of partial gag (616 bp), pol-RT (717 bp), and pol-IN (425 bp) sequences identified a diverse group of viruses, which could be subdivided into four distinct SFVcpz lineages according to their chimpanzee subspecies of origin. Within these lineages, there was evidence of frequent superinfection and viral recombination. One chimpanzee was infected by a foamy virus from a Cercopithecus monkey species, indicating cross-species transmission of SFVs in the wild. These data indicate that SFVcpz (i) is widely distributed among all chimpanzee subspecies; (ii) is shed in fecal samples as viral RNA; (iii) is transmitted predominantly by horizontal routes; (iv) is prone to superinfection and recombination; (v) has co-evolved with its natural host; and (vi) represents a sensitive marker of population structure that may be useful for chimpanzee taxonomy and conservation strategies

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe